Trey Lance Went to a Bar
Since he just turned 21 in May
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance got the nod for his first start on Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals chaotic defense. And like the movies CLUE or BLADE RUNNER, the performance of Lance improved upon repeated viewings.
To ze film!
While I thought that 49ers Head Coach Kyle Shanahan may ease Lance into his first start versus an aggressive defense, he instead decided to get his feet wet right off the bat.
Quite the eventful way to start the game.
The 49ers are in 21 personnel (if you want to call Kyle Juszczyk a Fullback) and create an Empty formation after a shift and then what I like to call a “Speed Motion” by the running back. Shanahan loves to move his players around with shifts & motions before the snap of the ball to help his players get indicators and to unravel defenses.
The offensive look goes from a 3x1 with Juszczyk at the top of the screen (seriously how the 49ers use him is very entertaining. One of the most useful and versatile players in the entire league):
But ends up in an Empty formation with the RB switching strengths of the formation and also hides the X-WR’s close split on the formation:
This is not only a wordy playcall, but it creates a pretty advantageous look on the play. The problem is that the blocking for the offensive line was not only poor in execution, but since Center Alex Mack pointed at #58 Jordan Hicks, the half-slide ended up working the wrong way and Lance had another free runner to deal with:
And I’m not one to say I know more than a great player like Alex Mack, but I think he even realized the error of his ways a brief moment after the shifts and motions started happening:
The basic rules of a 5-man protection will have the OL block the 4 (or 3) down defender and “work” towards a pointed defender. In this case that’s #58.
The issue is that #55 Chandler Jones walks up.
Quite the conundrum for Mack! Does he re-point to #55 and have the whole line essentially slide their way over? Does he have the license to do that? Or does that fall on the quarterback, even if it is a rookie. Should he do it with the operation so late in the play clock? It is a rookie QB making his first start. This Cardinals crowd is pretty rowdy, too. This is the human element of football.
Mack (or Lance) ends up not changing the call and with RG #60 Daniel Brunskill losing his match-up essentially at the snap of the ball, this is not an ideal start of the game for the 49ers offense. Free runners are very not good!
Why I’m spending so much time talking about the literal first play of the game is because even with the great design that created open receivers, the players still have to execute. And if the quarterback’s teammates don’t execute to the fullest - like the offensive line here - what the hell does he do? Can he create a play for you? Can he turn an average play into a good one or a bad play into something? Can he go get you a bucket?
Lance doesn’t panic. He turns what could have likely been a sack for most NFL quarterbacks into a first down and away we go.
Lance might have been a little amped up after his little trot past the sticks. As I am fairly certain - given other plays later in the game - that he faked the ball to the wrong direction on the very next play of the game:
Whoops!
Again, Lance is able to get to his throw in time but still a pretty funny clip. A nice reminder that we’re watching the fourth-youngest starting QB in the NFL history.
Lance had a similar moment like this crop up in his first extended run against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 4 as well. On this play he mixed up which side he thought the concepts were being run.
Again, 21 years old with not a ton of playing time. Based off of his college and NFL tape so far and in interviews, I think Lance is a very cerebral player and person. So I’m chalking this more up to nerves and inexperience than overall damning his play. More funny than anything.
Now for some bad. Lance’s interception on the first drive of the game:
The difficulty of under center play action for QBs is that they turn their back to the defense and then have flip their head and re-evaluate what’s going on.
Lance finishes his fake and looks up to find WR #17 Travis Benjamin on the inside. Benjamin is just starting to enter his break.
Lance has to listen to his feet when making this throw (something he improved upon as the game went on), not to where the receivers are at on their route.
Offensive pass concepts - when done well - will have everything tied together as far as timing. From the QB’s drop, to the route depth by the receivers, to the OL blocking. And with defenses as fast as they are in the NFL, every split second and detail matters. If a QB is late the defenders are likely already breaking. If the receiver is too short on a route the throw will likely be behind because it now made the QB artificially “late” on the throw.
Lance felt early here so he started getting into scramble mode, but what he has to keep learning is the anticipation needed on NFL throws. Sure, Benjamin is still mid-route when Lance is flipping his head around, but Lance has to throw to a spot when his feet are telling him to do so. Remember it’s about timing!
Once Lance felt late he started going into creation mode. And he ended up getting caught trying to do too much. Almost like a jump shooter who can’t decide whether he should go for a bank shot or go for the rim, Lance was about to scramble before deciding to do his best Patrick Mahomes impression.
And he got burned for it.
Shanahan actually showed very little hesitation to air the ball out with Lance to open the game. And the results were a mixed bag for not only Lance but his teammates as well.
On the second drive the 49ers started with a play action concept. And while this play draws a pass interference, it’s hard not to note how difficult of a throw Lance is being asked to make here:
There wasn’t a ton of fat in Lance’s footwork, but he could maybe help himself by speeding up the process just a hair. And while Benjamin gets the proper depth on his route, it does seem like he squeezed himself to the sideline (and didn’t create any form of separation to boot):
This is a tough throw. It’s a Deep Out route to the field after a play fake to the opposite direction. Lance misses inside as well but a small target not creating any space on his route doesn’t help either. Not a ton of room for error here but Benjamin does end up drawing a Pass Interference penalty.
There were other plays on the day that I initially thought that Lance was just panicking on his reads and deciding to tuck the ball and run. But when watching the all-22 copy of the game you can see that a chunk of these scrambles were caused by a leaky offensive line (especially in the interior and especially especially Brunskill), receivers getting hemmed up by defenders on their routes or even a RB going the wrong direction on his route:
Lance will have to keep learning to progress on these concepts and find throws but I don’t really fault his eyes or process on any of these clips. Even on the third play you can see him attempting to switch the RB over pre-snap before just saying “screw it” cause he feels the play clock winding down:
The RB ends up not switching over and the spacing for the play becomes muddled. Which is why I think Lance ends up aborting mission and deciding to try and create something himself.
Something looks off there! Not saying you can’t do it, but it’s unlikely the play was designed to have the RB on an out-breaker like that going right into a Stop route on the outside. I think Lance realizes the picture doesn’t look right before trying to make something happen himself.
So while that series of plays looks like Lance running around like he has no idea where to go with the ball, I do think it speaks to his ability to create for the offense when stuff goes wrong. It’s making a positive or neutral play when it could have very well been a negative one. That’s the ability he brings to the table in the passing game.
And when things started slowing down for Lance and he got a better understanding of the timing needed on throws (getting reps helps), you can see the arm talent.
Ripping a Stop route on 3rd & 3 versus tight coverage is good to see. And Lance shows improved timing on this throw. His motion is on the longer side but he has very good arm strength, which allows him to compensate for some of his lack of anticipation right now.
This concept is a man/zone coverage read for Lance. If someone travels with the RB on his motion then he takes his 1-on-1 match-up to the isolated receiver. And I think a stripped down read like this helped keep Lance’s feet calm.
His location on the throw was superb. The flash of arm strength was great. And his feet were calm.
Perhaps too calm. And Lance working to speed his feet up slightly is where I think Lance is going to get his first flashes of improvement.
WR Brandon Aiyuk’s route isn’t great. He starts turning well before the route target depth, not fully selling verticalness to make the CB feel uneasy.
If I’m nitpicking, Lance could still be releasing at about where the screenshot above is at. And that’s something just about every single QB who has entered the NFL has had to improve upon. To wildly differing results.
Lance was able to show more flashes of the ability to consistently push the ball down the field and make big throws in unadvantagous situation. Like a batter in baseball getting an extra base hit with 2 strikes.
Here Lance throws a missile to WR Mohamed Sanu on 3rd & 11. While his eyes are not great on the play - he gets a little tunnel vision on Sanu - he does throw this with improved timing and rhythm.
What’s so encouraging to see here is Lance driving the ball downfield. He very easily could have taken the underneath option and said to the coaches, “hey I was just trying to be smart and not throw into traffic and get what we can”.
That’s not a bad option! Perhaps the underneath option would break a tackle and get a 1st down. You wouldn’t have been mad to hear that answer as a coach. But Lance has already shown a willingness to hang in the pocket and swing for the fences in these situations. But what’s more encouraging in this clip is that he’s doing this on-time and in rhythm. He’s creating those extra runs - in this case a 1st down that could turn into more - in a situation that skews defense.
Later on a 2nd & 25 (the 49ers were called for 6 holding penalties on the day), Lance progresses to Aiyuk on a Cop (Corner+Stop) route:
I actually liked Lance’s timing on this play. He goes from the middle route to Aiyuk’s route without too much fat on his dropback and hitch in the pocket.
Again, Aiyuk’s route isn’t great. I feel like he’s a bit short on the route given that he’s going to be the backside of this progression. But it was still great ball placement from Lance and catch & run after by Aiyuk that creates a 1st down for the 49ers.
On an earlier drive in the 3rd quarter, Lance recognizes a busted pressure from the Cardinals on 3rd & 9. As no defender peels with Juszczyk in the Flat:
Lance is drifting back in the pocket, knowing he might not be “Hot” but he’s at least “Warm” with a 5 man protection versus a heavy pressure look. It’s also nice to see him staying calm and throwing with touch. He gets the ball out early enough that it gives Juszczyk enough time and space to go do his thing and convert for a 1st down.
Later on the same drive, after gaining 12 yards on 3rd & 17, the 49ers go for it on 4th & 5:
Lance knows he has to get the ball out quickly versus another potential pressure look. He not only beats the blitzer but also the CB on the top of the screen who is looking to trap this exact throw.
Again, if I were to offer a critique it would be that Lance could speed up his dropback tempo just a bit. But this is a laser of a throw and a smart play by Sanu knowing there might be a defender hanging.
A handful of throws that show Lance’s willingness to attack down the field and in high leverage situations. And that’s what he unlocks for an offense that might not be clicking on all cylinders at all times.
Compare him on this chart of throws of 15+ air yards and just compare and contrast Lance and fellow 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo:
We have seen Lance on pass plays so far utilizing his arm and legs. And his passing traits are tantalizing but his ability to legitimately run any QB run game concept is what makes his upside so high. And unlocks so many things for an offense.
Don’t want to deal with an opposing team’s exotic blitz package? Just pound the rock on them on 3rd & 7 with your QB following a puller:
The 49ers are able to change the angles on the blocks with Lance as the ball carrier. The TE is able to work inside and doesn’t have to worry about a tough block working outside on Chandler Jones. Juszczyk is working out towards Jones, changing the angles and now adding an extra blocker for the run.
When you hear talking heads spew the phrase “the QB run game changes the math”, this is the type of stuff that it means.
Another way the 49ers did this was via an Empty formation look with Jet motion. What we see mostly as a Wildcat formation but with an actual quarterback in the shotgun and no running backs on the field (again, depending on what you call Juszczyk):
The blocking would genuine be “hat-on-a-hat” if the WRs were able to get to the Safeties in time (Quarters safeties have to play heavy into the run fit so it’s a race).
The 49ers featured this formation throughout the day. Running out of it before throwing the ball on a 3rd down late in the game:
Back to an earlier point, Lance generally misses high when he feels like he has to “gun” throws in cause he’s either feeling late or the throw is feeling tight. He either overstrides (which lifts your front shoulder) or squeezes the ball too hard so it can come out awkwardly (potentially explaining some of his wobbly spirals).
Lance’s not only has the athleticism to get to the edge on Read concepts, but the size and toughness to run in-between the tackles. A rare combination of ability & willingness. The 49ers are obviously tinkering with their run game, because they pulled out a G-T Counter Read play that you mostly see in Baltimore with Lamar Jackson:
They’re still working out some of the kinks, but it’s a whole new section of plays that are unlocked by Lance’s ability.
It wasn’t all perfect. It even wasn’t all that good. But Trey Lance was able to offer enough glimpses on his ridiculous potential that I am more optimistic about what’s to come - not only in the far future but this season - than I maybe was on Sunday.
He is incredibly young with only a college season of plays under his belt. He plays with a sense of calmness to him that is encouraging to see. He didn’t get a ton of help from his teammates but he also missed throws and reads himself. Seeing him get better throughout the game rather than wilting after some early game woes is the silver lining to not a great box score performance. He started speeding up his mental clock and never backed down despite repeated high pressure situations.
Those glimpses of arm talent, toughness and athleticism, and an advanced mental maturity that he has shown at his age, will make Lance one of the most interesting players to watch develop in the NFL. And I am excited to keep tabs on it.
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